Insights 2026 | View on Venture Capital

In Insights 2026, we highlight how AI has become the dominant engine of global Venture Capital, accounting for nearly two thirds of US deal value and driving record-scale fundraising by leading AI labs. Rapid adoption and unprecedented revenue growth across AI-native companies have concentrated capital in a small group of category leaders, even as overall deal activity begins to recover.

Venture performance has stabilised after the correction of recent years, though distributions and fundraising remain subdued, creating ongoing liquidity pressure for GPs and LPs. Against this backdrop, our focus remains on selecting specialist managers, maintaining steady commitment pacing, and targeting early-stage AI innovation, deep-tech platforms and select late-stage companies with clear product-market fit. We aim to balance high-upside early-stage exposure with the shorter duration and lower dispersion of late-stage opportunities.

Key Takeaways

• AI now drives the majority of US venture capital, reshaping deal flow and value creation.
• Deal activity is improving but increasingly concentrated in top-tier companies; Asia’s share continues to decline.
• Unicorns are growing and staying private longer, with secondary markets providing needed liquidity.
• Returns have stabilised, though distributions remain below historical norms.
• Fundraising is challenging, with capital flowing to established platforms.
• For 2026, we are prioritising early-stage AI exposure, deep-tech specialists, selective late-stage co-investments and increased ‘early growth’ allocation.