Insights 2026 | View on Credit

In Insights 2026, we outline how credit markets have tightened materially, with strong inflows and limited new issuance pushing spreads to multi-year lows. While absolute yields remain appealing, weaker protections, rising dispersion and early signs of stress highlight the need for disciplined underwriting. With public and private markets increasingly overlapping, we see the most compelling opportunities in specialised areas where complexity and selectivity are better rewarded. 

Key Takeaways 

• Spreads are near five-year lows, offering less cushion as defaults and operating pressures gradually rise. 

• Competition in large, commoditised private credit is compressing returns, while complex or niche strategies continue to earn a premium. 

• Public and private credit are converging, making manager skill and structural protection more important. 

• The strongest opportunities lie in capital solutions, rescue and distressed lending, asset-backed finance and targeted real estate credit.