Insights 2026 | Executive Summary

This Executive Summary outlines the key themes of Insights 2026.

We enter 2026 in an environment shaped by political disruption, elevated tariffs and one of the largest AI investment cycles in history. While global growth has remained more resilient than expected, it is becoming increasingly uneven as labour markets stagnate, business sentiment weakens and inflation pressures oscillate.

At the same time, tariff effects have been cushioned by inventory behaviour and trade diversion, and interest rate dynamics are being influenced by shifting policy priorities. In this context, portfolios anchored in high diversification, selective active management and disciplined oversight of cross-asset risk factors are best positioned to navigate near-term uncertainty while preparing for structural opportunities created by technological change, shifting policy regimes and evolving market dislocations. 

Key Takeaways 

• Global growth remains resilient but uneven, with strong consumption and elevated capital expenditure offset by weakening labour markets and widening regional divergence. 

• AI-related capital expenditure is expanding rapidly, yet near-term productivity gains remain limited. Rising dependence on credit markets and uncertain returns increase the risk of overinvestment and future valuation adjustments. 

• Highly diversified portfolios that incorporate elevated liquidity, selective credit and absolute return strategies, and carefully calibrated equity risk are well suited to this environment of fluctuating labour income, shifting inflation pressures and intermittent policy uncertainty. 

• Persistent volatility is likely to create compelling long-term opportunities for investors who can deploy capital selectively into public and private market dislocations, particularly as technological and macroeconomic forces interact across asset classes.