Report
Insights 2026
Elevated tensions in growth, inflation and labour markets are intersecting with an unprecedented surge in AI-related investment. Insights 2026 outlines how resilient portfolio construction and highly selective sub-asset class positioning can help investors. In addition, innovative risk management can help navigate this disrupted environment.
Key Takeaways
- Global growth is expected to remain resilient in 2026, though uneven. Strong consumption and elevated capital expenditure contrast with softening labour markets. Furthermore, widening regional divergences are emerging.
- Rising tariffs, heightened political uncertainty and the unprecedented surge in AI-related investment will be major forces shaping market dynamics. They will drive both opportunity and volatility across asset classes.
- Delivering resilient returns will require well-diversified portfolios that balance liquidity and income-generating strategies. Highly selective exposure to structural growth themes will also be needed in an environment frequently tested by macro tensions.
- Selective allocations to artificial intelligence, life sciences, private markets and real assets can enhance long-term portfolio durability. However, this is provided investors apply disciplined, forward-looking risk management.
- The 2026 Tactical Asset Allocation is designed to position investors for a wide range of potential outcomes. This will provide stability and adaptability amid elevated economic, political and technological uncertainty.
An Overview of Insights 2026
What is the outlook for investors in 2026?
The investment landscape entering 2026 is marked by a distinct tension. On one hand, resilient consumption and elevated corporate capital expenditure continue to act as powerful growth engines. On the other, labour markets have softened noticeably. Hiring momentum has nearly stalled and business sentiment has weakened under the weight of policy tightening and elevated uncertainty.
The global economy in 2025 demonstrated this divergence clearly: capex accelerated sharply while employment growth plateaued. This disconnect is now feeding into a year in which growth remains possible but increasingly vulnerable to shock.
Tariff-driven inflation pressures have so far been mitigated by inventory front-loading and trade diversion, but these effects are temporary. Interest rate dynamics remain fluid as inflation concerns ease. Fiscal deficits are expanding and the US Federal Reserve shifts its focus toward employment stability.
Overlaying all of this is an AI investment cycle that continues to intensify. Massive capital deployment into data centres, semiconductor capacity and model training infrastructure is creating genuine long-term potential. However, it is also bringing near-term fragility as return visibility narrows and credit reliance grows. Markets must now balance AI-led optimism against the risk of AI-led overextension.
Against this backdrop, we remain committed to constructing portfolios that are well positioned to deliver attractive returns over the longer term. At the same time, we aim to provide the resilience needed to withstand, and capitalise on, elevated levels of volatility.
Download Insights 2026 to access:
- Comprehensive scenario analysis
- Tactical Asset Allocation guidance
- Deep-dive research across public and private markets
- Our framework for navigating heightened economic, political and technological disruption on behalf of our clients
Secondary Authors
Nick Albertini
Emma Bewley
John Beil
Andy Canovali
Christoph Günther
Oliver Jarman
Daniel Leder
Jeff McDonnell
Ella Peters
Oliver Rising
Robert Skelton
Adam Spence
Delaney Tantillo
Scott Ward-Corderoy
Nick Worrell